Tag Archive for: Labor Market

A Market of Stocks

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by Jeffrey Dow Jones
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14 Mar
March 14, 2013

Celebrate diversity!

Or, at least as far as content is concerned.  This week will be a diverse, colorful bag of analysis.  First we’ll take a look at the economy and the latest data reports.  Then we’ll take a peek at the labor market and meditate on what’s really helping it out right now (hint: it’s what was killing the labor market in 2008 and 2009).  We’ll finish off by discussing a formula that the world’s most famous value investors have used to help calculate stock prices and growth rates for decades.  And as a bonus, we’ve got a relative value trade that is guaranteed to get you laughed right out of your golf foursome down at club.  But when we look closer at the risk & reward, this could be one that makes a ton of money in the next year or two.

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Recapping the Debates and Latest Data

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by Jeffrey Dow Jones
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11 Oct
October 11, 2012

When I was in elementary school, I have this vivid memory of my dad coming to pick me up one day.  It was November and the leaves had turned and fallen, and today there were all sorts of strange adults walking around the school grounds.  There were strange signs posted everywhere, too.  Something to do with polling booths.  But I didn’t care because we were getting a half day!  I was very excited.  Neighborhood football was probably in order.

This was when I first heard the terms “Democrat” and “Republican.”  I remember asking my dad what they meant, and he said, “Democrats part their hair to the left and Republicans part their hair to the right.”  I parted my hair to the right (or was it my right that had the part?).  No bother.  I was a Republican because my dad was a Republican and we each parted our hair in the same way.  I remember feeling good that we had that in common.

It was my earliest political memory.  It still makes me chuckle for a dozen different reasons.

Today I don’t have a part in my hair, nor do I even have much hair to speak of.  Perfectly fitting for my political views, of course.

Politics is more of an arbitrary thing than you may be comfortable with.  Personally, I’m of the belief that it’s more about being part of a team and all the spirit and camaraderie that goes along with that.  It feels good to surround yourself with people that share things in common and it feels good to stand together against the Other Guys.  This tribalism is part of our human DNA and is an evolutionary tactic in many different species.

Politics is also a place where you can go to make decisions and develop beliefs without having to do much thinking yourself.  I don’t say that in derogatory sense.  Careful, rational thought is exhausting.  Our brain relies on shortcuts and political affiliation is an important shortcut.  It allows people, who, in a vacuum, wouldn’t have the first thing to say about complicated tax policy or the nuances of foreign relations, to have a real opinion on these things.  This feels good.

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LIBOR, Bernanke, and a Slowing Economy

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by Jeffrey Dow Jones
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19 Jul
July 19, 2012

Thanks for all the great comments on last week’s healthcare newsletter!  As expected, some were supportive, others less so.  Only one guy seemed legitimately angry.

Next week I plan to tackle a different, equally controversial and sensitive topic.  I have no doubt that it will enrage some and encourage others.  I have a feeling, though, that we’ll all be able to agree on a framework for a fairly solid investment strategy.  Sometimes when you kick a bee’s nest, you get a little honey.

Stay tuned for that.  Subscribe by email or get it automatically through your Facebook feed.  Don’t worry, I promise zero clutter with only one semi-witty update per week on Thursday mornings.

In the meantime, there’s lots to get caught up on.

Bernanke & Jobs

Earlier this week we saw Bernanke’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee.

One of the key themes of his comments was that job growth remains frustratingly low and is likely to stay frustratingly low.  I’ve been writing about this for a while.  We’re going to be stuck with a much higher “normal” rate of unemployment than we were used to during the long boom.  And, contrary to popular belief, the reason for all this is NOT because of the financial crisis.  That was merely a catalyst.

The reason for a difficult labor market is because of the structural changes of the entire planet.

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Gold Will Drive You Bonkers

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by Jeffrey Dow Jones
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29 Mar
March 29, 2012

Major changes are set to take place with our newsletter next week.  We’re changing our name, our look, and our social presence.  The only thing that won’t change is our awesome content and geeky sense of humor.  That’ll keep coming.  And every once in a while you guys will get another movie or book review.

I’ve been working on this re-branding quietly in the background for a while and it’s just about ready to unveil.  My goal is for this big transition to take place as seamlessly as possible.  The funny thing about technology, though, is that stuff like this always winds up being much more work than you initially budgeted for.

The reason why I mention it this week is so nobody panics when they come back next Thursday and see that everything looks completely different.  I’m excited about it, and I think you guys will like it too.

Gold.  Gold?!?

What the heck is going on with gold?  Prices have corrected sharply since late February, which I personally find ironic.  It would figure that immediately after issuing a mea culpa about being wrong on gold, gold would do exactly what I worried it would in the first place.

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