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Last year around this time, I wrote what I thought was a pretty good article for Seeking Alpha. I’m aware that most of what I write must sound like the esoteric rantings of a bizarre, sci-fi- & fantasy baseball-obsessed mad man. But I actually felt a modicum of pride about this one.
I was pleased with it because they selected it as an “Editor’s Choice” piece and it was the most popular article on the site in terms of pageviews. Apparently it resonated with others. But the most interesting thing about it was that the strategy I talked about played out perfectly. I’m sure that’s 100% attributable to luck because my upcoming book tentatively titled “Jeff Was Wrong” is getting so big I’m probably going to have to split it into three volumes.
The basic idea of the trade was to recognize that the market was, in the first quarter of 2011, making a short-term top. I looked at a bunch of different indicators, all of which suggested that the market might be topping out. It turned out that the market was topping out. The market would spend all spring and summer chopping violently around before falling off a cliff in late July and August.
Which brings us to…